The Russian Ministry of Defence has outlined an ambitious strategy extending to 2045, which not only addresses the ongoing conflict in Ukraine but also seeks to fundamentally alter the global balance of power.
According to Portfolio, Moscow intends to engage US leadership in initiating discussions to reconfigure global politics. A central component of this strategy is the dismantling of Ukraine as a sovereign state—a move that could upend the post-Second World War international order. On the platform X, a map has already been published illustrating how Russia envisions dividing Ukraine, effectively splitting the country into three parts.
Proposed partition of Ukraine
According to Portfolio, the plan envisions a division of Ukraine into three distinct parts:
Eastern Regions Annexed to Russia:
The regions of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk—already partially occupied by Russia—would be permanently annexed. Moscow has held so-called “referendums” in these areas, though their legitimacy is widely disputed.
A Pro-Russian Puppet State in Central Ukraine:
Central Ukraine, including Kyiv, would fall under the control of a pro-Russian government. This region would encompass significant cities such as Odessa, Kharkiv, and Dnipro, though its political and economic autonomy would remain tightly constrained by Moscow.
Western Ukraine Divided Among Neighbours:
The western regions—spanning eight provinces—would be distributed among Poland, Hungary, and Romania. Such a proposal not only violates Ukraine’s sovereignty but also risks destabilising Central Europe, with far-reaching geopolitical consequences.
The scenarios also discuss the potential global order under various outcomes. In the event of a Russian victory, Moscow envisions a world divided into spheres of influence shared among major powers. A less structured scenario foresees regional powers rising as global structures weaken, resulting in increased instability. One scenario assumes Russian defeat, consolidating the dominance of the United States and its allies. Another outcome predicts Russia’s defeat, with China emerging as the dominant global power, both economically and politically.
Redefining the World Order
At the heart of these plans lies Moscow’s ambition to supplant the US-led post-Second World War global order, which it criticises as favouring Western monopolies on political and economic power. To this end, Russia has reportedly convened several meetings in 2022 and 2023, exploring ways to dismantle the US-dominated global financial system.
This vision threatens not only Ukraine’s sovereignty but also risks destabilising Hungary and other Central European nations. The redrawing of borders could trigger significant political and social upheaval, with implications far beyond the immediate region.
Moscow’s plans reveal that the conflict in Ukraine extends well beyond local or regional disputes—it is part of a larger ambition to redefine the global order. The proposed dismemberment of Ukraine and the shift in global power structures pose profound challenges for the international community, raising questions that will shape geopolitics for decades to come.
Read also: